2025 has already begun with a mix of signals that make Italian businesses oscillate between enthusiasm and caution. But what emerges from Italian business forecasts for 2025-2026? The survey conducted by Quaeris last October for the “1,000 Best Performing Companies 2025” event organised by Italy Post offers an interesting insight: out of more than 150 companies surveyed, 46.2% expect to close the year with increased revenue. This figure, despite current challenges, describes a sector that hasn’t lost its appetite for growth.
46.2% of companies forecast growth. Business sentiment regarding the close of 2025 outlines a structured picture, characterised by expectations predominantly oriented towards growth, even in a still unstable economic moment. This number demonstrates the solidity of a significant portion of the Italian productive system in identifying development trajectories, despite ongoing tensions in international markets. This group is joined by 34.9% anticipating a stable situation, confirming an attitude of prudence whilst also safeguarding performance levels already achieved.
The proportion of companies fearing a revenue contraction, equal to 18.9%, represents a smaller but significant percentage. Notably, expectations of reduction are concentrated primarily in the range between -4% and -5%, suggesting a moderate reduction outlook, more the effect of external pressures than internal weaknesses. This interpretation is confirmed by analysis of causes: 65% of companies expecting decreased revenue identify the crisis in international markets as the main risk factor, whilst 25% cite falling domestic demand. The emergence of these predominantly external causes highlights that businesses need to enhance their capabilities in diversification, risk management, and adaptation to global market changes. On the other hand, amongst companies anticipating growth, expectations are positioned in a range between +4% and +10%. This data suggests reasonable and concrete optimism—not euphoria, but rather an assessment supported by consolidation strategies, targeted investments, and a sustainable and efficient managerial approach.
2026: Confidence Grows. The forecast scenario confirms and strengthens this positive trend. The proportion of companies expecting revenue increases rises to 52.9%, exceeding the 50.6% recorded in forecasts made for 2025. At the same time, the percentage of companies predicting a contraction decreases notably to 7.8%, whilst stability is indicated by 39.2% of the sample. This is an evolution that indicates growing confidence and improvement in medium-term planning.
Growth expectations for 2026 are concentrated primarily in the 4-5% range (indicated by 46.2% of companies), followed by the 6-10% interval (21.2%). The distribution indicates moderate and sustainable growth, consistent with gradual strategies adopted by companies in a complex global context. Overall, the emerging picture shows an entrepreneurial system that, whilst operating in a competitive market subject to unpredictable external events, is perfecting innovative methods to navigate unstable markets and capitalise on its strengths. It highlights a productive fabric oriented towards resilience, effective management, and prompt interpretation of global dynamics.
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